If you're thinking about buying a home, now looks good
By James Thorner
St. Petersburg Times Staff Writer
In print: Friday, May 2, 2008
Dave Seidenberg works for Tampa-based luxury home builder Bayfair Properties. Like many builders, he's "struggling like crazy."
Another thing that makes him crazy is all the griping about how many months it will take for home prices to reach bottom.
Seidenberg was defiant during a phone chat this week: "There is no magic bottom."
Let's not misconstrue his message: Overall home prices still have room to sink. It might be 2009 before prices have enough ballast to steady themselves.
The Florida Association of Realtors says the local median sales price has fallen 25.3 percent since it topped out at $239,600 in June 2006. Now it's $178,900.
While Seidenberg is confident many homes already are scraping the price floor, the screeching sound isn't universal.
He points to one of his own models in Pasco County. It sold a few years ago for $499,000, rode a speculative tidal wave to $700,000 and beat a retreat this year to $499,000.
Lest you think his example is too self-serving, Seidenberg's commissioned some research. Contrary to popular opinion, financing a new home this year costs the same as financing such a home in pre-boom 2000.
In 2000, the median new home price was $172,427. If you bought that house at the then-average loan rate of 8.29 percent, the monthly mortgage payment would have come to $1,281.
Skip ahead to 2008. The median price of a new home is $216,000. If you paid that amount and borrowed at today's 5.97 percent interest rate, the monthly payment comes to $1,219.
I admit the scenario requires some creative omissions. Buyers are going for smaller homes this year. The mortgage payment might be the same, but the square footage probably isn't.
Let's not forget taxes and insurance, either. Taxes are higher because the sales price is higher. And the pre-Hurricane Charlie glory days of property insurance for a few hundred bucks are gone with the wind.
But Seidenberg's not done pleading his case. He says hiring contractors is as cheap as it has been for eight to 10 years. That translates to price concessions. And don't expect mortgage rates to hide in the basement. In the past 37 years, going back to April 1971, they've been this low only 23 times in 444 months.
As we enter the season of stucco and shingle, expect plenty of wooing from builders: Buy now or forever hold your peace.
